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Expected value

Expected value is the probability-weighted average of the possible results of a decision, presented in university course material on poker theory as the general rule by which betting lines are compared.

Official source: 15.S50 - Poker Theory and Analytics - Basic Strategy →

It is computed as the chance of winning times the amount won, less the chance of losing times the amount lost. A call breaks even where expected value equals zero, which is the threshold pot odds express; bluffs and semi-bluffs are evaluated the same way, adding the value gained when an opponent folds.

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  1. 15.S50 - Poker Theory and Analytics - Basic Strategy verified agent:verification